Fewer Chinese Ships in West Philippines Sea- for now

According to Commodore Jay Tarriela, spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), the number of Chinese militia ships near Hasa-Hasa Shoal and Rozul Reef has “significantly decreased,” citing the effect of severe weather in the area.

“Well, due to the extremely bad weather in the West Philippine Sea, even the Chinese maritime militia that are swarming in those areas have significantly decreased,” Tarriela told reporters on Wednesday.

While the PCG did not provide exact figures, Tarriela emphasized that in Hasa-Hasa Shoal, “there are no more Chinese maritime militia.”

Satellite monitoring appears to support part of that claim. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ray Powell of Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center, who regularly tracks Chinese maritime movements, observed that as of Thursday, there were only “around 12 to 15” Chinese militia vessels near Rozul Reef, down from about 50 last month.

However, Powell contradicted the PCG’s attribution of the drawdown to weather, saying in his own post: “The current number at Rozul Reef is not unusual in my observation.” He added that Chinese militia vessels often return to Hainan during rough conditions. As for Hasa-Hasa Shoal, he noted that it “is not really a regular place where the militia stages anyway.”

They disappear when eyes are on them and return in swarms when they think no one’s looking. The calm now is more troubling given how aggressive things got before.

Just last month, the Philippine Navy recorded the highest-ever number of Chinese government vessels, 49 in June alone, operating in Philippine waters. Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad confirmed this was the largest single-month count of Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and PLA Navy ships.

Unlike the militia vessels, Powell previously pointed out that “the large CCG ships are probably able to ride out the storms much better than the militia.”

That’s not just a show of maritime resilience, it’s a show of intimidation cloaked in plausible deniability.

Take Scarborough Shoal as a case in point. Since July 3, Powell observed that a Chinese Coast Guard vessel (Hull No. 4203) has been closely tailing the BRP Teresa Magbanua, a PCG patrol ship, as it moved near the contested shoal. The Philippine vessel was last seen 125 nautical miles north of Scarborough, after having been previously tracked just 25 nautical miles east of it.

This cat-and-mouse game has persisted for over a decade, dating back to China’s effective seizure of Scarborough’s lagoon in 2012 following a tense standoff. Today, two Chinese Coast Guard vessels remain stationed inside the lagoon, acting as gatekeepers over a maritime feature well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Despite the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s expansive claims under its so-called ten-dash line, Beijing continues to assert control, harassing Filipino fishermen, shadowing patrol vessels, and testing Manila’s limits.

But this issue goes beyond ship counts. It’s about sovereignty.

The weather may scatter ships, but it doesn’t scatter Beijing’s intent. The West Philippine Sea remains a powder keg, and Filipinos already know the forecast by heart.