Will WW3 more likely happen?

Conflicts wouldn’t rise and aggression wouldn’t happen if everyone just intended to accept the United Nations (UN) decision saying that the West Philippine Sea belongs to the Philippines. But in the real world, that’s not really what’s happening.

The Filipinos, members of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and especially local Palaweno fisherfolks have long endured the constant display of harassment and aggression from Chinese Coast Guards (CCG) even in our own maritime jurisdiction.

CCGs shoot down Vietnam fishing boats, they invade Philippine waters, taunt PCG crews in the Ayungin Shoal, and they send over 40 militia ships to surround Kalayaan ang Pag-asa Island.

Honestly China will not stop, they all say the same thing “we owned this country billions of years ,” or some nonsense like that. You don’t see Britain going around saying they owned this country and that county so it’s theirs.

But let’s do a little bit of math. All of SouthEast Asia is influenced by China because of trade. China is the elephant in Asia today and growing. Asian countries cannot avoid being influenced by China. Even India has become more aligned instead of combative with China. India, along with Pakistan are now members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and as such have more in common than against.

With time, if this relationship holds up, Asia will be the dominant economic power in the world with China in the lead.

China’s investment in technology dwarfs that of other countries except for the US and within the next ten years, that advantage may disappear.

Let’s not rule out the fact that China and the Philippines need each other economically. They rely on each other heavily for trade.

Regarding the dispute on the islands and shoals in the WPS, here’s what I see; Those islands are becoming more trouble than they’re worth. I think there is a significant sentiment on both sides to back down, but neither side wants to be the first to do so, because the one to do so would significantly lose face diplomatically.

I think the best case moving forward would be to simply develop the islands jointly.

A joint claim made by both states would be harder for any other single state to compete with, and it fosters cooperation between the two parties involved, which I would think is economically sound for both parties. The current state of both parties being unwilling to compromise is simply draining the resources of both in pointless attrition.

But why does China bother to claim these small Palawan islands?

Many people don’t see why the Philippines is relevant to China’s foreign policy. They are saying that it does not have an iota of influence in the world.

That’s quite offensive, actually. Even a person with no connection to the Philippines will find this question offensive.

Lets ask a similar question, why is China taking such interest in, and giving so much money to, the tiny African nation of Djibouti which is located on the opposite side of the planet and has vastly less influence than the Philippines? I mean, have you ever heard of Djibouti before?

Because the Djibouti government is letting China build a military base there.

Let’s look at the Philippines using the same criteria. It is very close to China, and at one stage had two of the largest US military bases in the world – Clarke Air Force Base, and Subic Bay Naval Base, conveniently located right next to the South China Sea.

Should these be re-opened in a big way, it would allow the US to easily project overwhelming force throughout the South China Sea and to the Chinese mainland. A very, very strategic location if you are trying to contain China. So China has a huge strategic interest in keeping the Philippines if not friendly, then at least not in a strong military alliance with the US.

Let’s not also forget the theory of the First Island Chain Contentment.

It’s geography. Japan, Taiwan ang the Philippines are all USA allies and are located parallel to the China coast line.

Basically, it prevents the Chinese navy from breaking out into blue water in times of armed conflict. They wouldn’t be able to pass the island defenses of these places. If they can take Taiwan, it will automatically give them unrestricted access to go attack other places, control shipping lanes, build military bases, etc.

With the US troops back in the country and Taiwan, China is boxed, they can’t move. And this drives them insane.

If they are allowed to break the first island chain, they would be able to invade or control all the other nations of the Pacific including Australia.

This is why the USA is quick to address and is by far more willing to defend the Philippines aside from both nations having a special relationship as allies.

The USA will not let the Philippines or Taiwan fall. In the case of history, the USA and Philippines are both speaking Christian democracies, which is the reason why, either one can’t fall into the hands of a communist ruled nation. Whatever it may take, America will defend the Philippines like it’s Pearl Harbour or Guam.

We can all just hope that the US will put enough strong presence in place so China wouldn’t take any action. Deterrence is the best defense.

Going back, to answer the topic of this column, in my point of view, a WW3 may unlikely break out, but we cannot rule out the potential possibility of it as early as now.

Yes, it is unlikely, but not impossible.

Both nations, although being rivals, have a ton of money invested in the other, and are heavily reliant on each other economically. If there were to be an incident in the South China Sea, it would more likely be resolved diplomatically.

If they couldn’t resolve anything diplomatically, they would go to war.

If an event happens in the disputed waters, the US wouldn’t simply stand aside. Hopefully China can show some restraint and stop acting like it’s the only sovereign nation in East Asia.

Just as importantly, hopefully the US can restrain their allies from doing anything rash/ill-advised which might start a conflagration.

There’s no reason for the world’s two economic powerhouses, North America and East Asia, to get into a destructive war over some insignificant rocks and a few underwater gas fields. The likely outcome can only be guessed at. But the ideal outcome would be a multi-power conference to settle these disputes once and for all, before this thing turns into something like the Balkans were before WWI.

A Sino-American war would escalate to WW3. Many people would die, and when one side is losing, they would unleash the nukes. (Which is why nuclear powers do NOT fight other nuclear powers).