China’s insistence on the legality of its controversial nine-dash line, which has now been expanded to a ten-dash line, remains a point of contention in the region. This line, which claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, remains unsupported by any internationally recognized legal framework, despite being invalidated by an arbitral court ruling in 2016.
China’s persistent presence in disputed waters, notably in areas falling within the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of other nations, underscores its ongoing territorial ambitions. Data from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that Chinese vessels maintained a steady presence in these contested waters throughout 2024, logging 1,939 ship days, surpassing the previous record of 1,652 ship days in 2023.
The Chinese presence is most significant in areas like Luconia Shoals and Vanguard Bank, where ships were stationed for 359 and 354 days, respectively. Other locations like Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal, and Thitu Island also saw sustained Chinese activity, with periods of occupation ranging from 128 to 313 days. The China Coast Guard (CCG) continues to patrol these areas with regularity, further fueling disputes with neighboring countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
The Philippines, which has actively protested China’s actions, particularly the aggressive encounters between Chinese vessels and Filipino maritime forces, has expressed concern over the safety of Filipino personnel. In some incidents, the aggressive tactics employed by Chinese vessels have endangered the lives of Philippine Navy and Coast Guard personnel.
In response to China’s ongoing presence, Malaysia has signaled its intent to continue its oil and gas exploration activities in Luconia Shoals, a region within its EEZ, despite China’s objections. Malaysia’s Kasawari Gas Development Project off the coast of Sarawak remains a focal point of the dispute, with China claiming the area as part of its expansive territorial rights.
Vietnam, likewise, has raised its concerns, demanding the release of its fishermen and vessels that have been captured by Chinese forces in the Paracel Islands, another area where conflicting territorial claims with China and Taiwan persist.
China’s official stance remains firm: it maintains that its actions are legitimate and accuses other nations asserting rights in the South China Sea of infringing upon its sovereignty. The country has consistently rejected any international ruling that undermines its territorial claims, citing its self-declared nine-dash line as the basis for its actions. This, despite international rulings that have deemed such claims invalid.
Dr. Elaine Tolentino, an international relations analyst, noted that China’s ongoing expansionist tactics seem impervious to diplomacy. “It does look like no amount of diplomacy is working to prevent China from its ambitious claims in the South China Sea,” she said. This sentiment reflects the growing frustration of many Southeast Asian nations, whose calls for a diplomatic resolution seem to fall on deaf ears.
As early as 2017, former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio highlighted China’s encroachment on Sandy Cay, a small sandbar near Thitu Island (Pag-asa Island), which is under Philippine occupation. While former President Rodrigo Duterte downplayed concerns, citing China’s assurances that no structures would be built on Sandy Cay, recent discoveries have suggested otherwise.
University of the Philippines professor Dr. Jonathan Anticamara found rubble piling up on the sandbar, raising suspicions about Chinese reclamation activities. National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea spokesperson Jay Tarriela pointed out that there is no doubt about the identity of the country responsible. “It’s only the People’s Republic of China,” he stated.
Strategically, the value of Sandy Cay is immense. Although small in size, it holds legal significance, as it can generate a territorial sea, thereby strengthening the claimant’s sovereignty in the region. According to maritime policy analyst Dr. Mark Valencia, control over Sandy Cay could help solidify China’s claim over nearby Subi Reef, where it has constructed a large artificial island complete with a military-grade runway and a seaport.
Valencia noted, “Sovereignty over Sandy Cay would significantly enhance China’s strategic and legal position in the area.” For the Philippines, asserting control over Sandy Cay is crucial to contest China’s occupation of Subi Reef and to solidify its claims over the West Philippine Sea. The dispute over these small features highlights the broader geopolitical struggle for control over one of the world’s most critical maritime regions.
While China’s actions in the Spratly Islands, including reclamation activities on features like Sandy Cay, Lankiam Cay, and Whitsun Reef, have been the subject of multiple protests by other nations, Beijing has dismissed such reports, claiming that they have the right to develop the area in accordance with its sovereignty.
The Philippines, through diplomatic protests and international support, continues to challenge China’s unlawful claims. As of 2024, the Philippine government has filed over 200 diplomatic protests against China’s actions in the West Philippine Sea. Meanwhile, public support in the Philippines remains strong, with 91% of Filipinos aware of the territorial conflict and 84% backing the government’s efforts to defend the nation’s maritime claims.
Experts, including defense analyst Chester Cabalza, argue that while diplomatic protests remain effective, the next step is to move towards more open and frank communication with China and other claimant nations to resolve these complex issues. The Philippines, along with Malaysia and Vietnam, must find a way to balance diplomatic dialogue with a firm stance on sovereignty.
Dr. Elaine Tolentino, however, suggests a more strategic approach: “The Philippines should creatively find ways to impose actual costs on China that would challenge its power illusion. The current gray zone tactics China is employing are clearly designed to expand its influence without triggering open conflict.”
In the meantime, China’s expansion in the South China Sea shows no signs of abating, and the Philippines, along with its regional allies, will need to remain vigilant in safeguarding their maritime rights.
