The Philippines is on the brink of its annual dry season, with temperatures expected to climb dangerously high in the coming weeks, meteorologists warned. While this year’s heat wave is not projected to be as extreme as last year’s record-breaking levels, the heat index—a measure of how hot it feels to the human body—could still push into dangerous territory, raising concerns about public health and safety.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that temperatures in Northern Luzon, particularly in Cagayan Valley, could soar to nearly 40 degrees Celsius by May. However, it is the heat index that is drawing greater concern, as it could reach between 48 and 50 degrees Celsius from late April to early May, a level that could trigger heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and even heat stroke.
“This is the time of year when we see the highest temperatures, typically around 39.6 or 39.8 degrees Celsius,” said Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA’s assistant weather services chief, in a briefing at Malacañang. “While we are not expecting the same extreme heat we saw in 2024 due to El Niño, we are still urging the public to take precautions.”
The transition into the dry season has been gradual, with warm conditions already being felt in several parts of the country. However, PAGASA has yet to make an official declaration, citing the lingering influence of the northeast monsoon, which is typically associated with cooler and drier air.
Local governments, particularly in Metro Manila, have already begun implementing precautionary measures. Some areas suspended classes last week due to the projected danger-level heat index, a move supported by the Teachers’ Dignity Coalition, which has called for region-wide class suspensions when PAGASA issues heat warnings.
While concerns over rising temperatures dominate forecasts, PAGASA is also keeping an eye on potential storms. The agency expects 16 to 19 tropical cyclones to enter the country this year, highlighting the volatility of the Philippines’ climate.
In the meantime, forecasters are advising the public to take preventive measures, particularly as temperatures are expected to rise steadily in the coming days. Heavy physical activity should be scheduled in the early morning or late afternoon, according to PAGASA weather specialist Ana Clauren-Jorda, who also urged Filipinos to stay hydrated.
“Heat stroke, heat stress, and heat cramps are real risks,” she warned in a radio interview. “Seniors, children, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities are particularly vulnerable.”
Despite the mounting heat, weather conditions are expected to remain unstable as the country transitions fully into the dry season. Parts of Luzon, including Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Region, continued to experience scattered rains on Monday due to the convergence of warm and cool winds known as the shear line. The same system brought rain to the eastern Visayas and parts of Mindanao.
But that relief will be short-lived. By mid-March, PAGASA is expected to officially declare the start of the dry season, ushering in weeks of sweltering temperatures across the archipelago.
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